Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time in more than 10 months, which some analysts said could signal the end of Bitcoin’s bear market.
Bitcoin closed the week at $81,159 on Coinbase on Sunday, above its 50-week moving average of $78,788, according to TradingView. The last weekly close above the moving average was on November 9, 2025.
In August, Alex Thorne, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Research described The 50-week moving average serves as a Bear market time ceiling.
“In four of the five bear markets, once the 50-week moving average broke to the first upside, the bear market bottom was definitely ‘in,'” he said in a research note.
“Essentially, the retake of the 50w MA confirmed the end of a previous bear market,” Thorne added.
The latest close is bitcoin’s highest weekly close in four months, according to data from TradingView.
On Tuesday, ahead of the weekly shutdown, Ben Simpson, founder of crypto research firm Collective Shift said Bitcoin will close above its 50-week moving average “The last thing I need to see before I call it a bull market.” He said Bitcoin has gained between 700% and 900% after breaking above the levels in 2017, 2020 and 2023.
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitgate, told Cointelegraph that recent closes have added weight to Bitcoin’s ongoing recovery.
“In previous cycles, this level tended to recover after major lows were established and long-term momentum began to recover.”
However, Lee said that a weekly close is not enough to confirm that Bitcoin has reached its cycle bottom.
“The important thing now is whether Bitcoin can stay above the 50-week moving average and continue to form higher lows,” he said. “We have seen failed recoveries in previous cycles, particularly when the macro environment was difficult.”
Galaxy similarly warned in August that while the 50-week moving average is a historically strong indicator that a bear market is over, the signal is not infallible.
Of the 13 weekly crossings above the 50-week moving average, two of them followed lower lows, both occurring in the 2021-2022 bear market.
Lee said Market background It was nevertheless stronger than the year before, with Bitcoin recovering significantly from its July low of $57,000. Lee said the leverage built up in the market by repeated liquidations has also cleared and there are signs of institutional demand returning.
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Meanwhile, crypto trader Craig Cobb told Cointelegraph that the 50-week moving average is not the indicator to determine whether a bull market has begun.
Cobb said he’s instead looking at $83,000 as a key level for bitcoin, “which would mean there’s no lower high on the monthly chart and therefore the trend is no longer down.”
His second test involved Bitcoin’s three-month chart. Under that setup, Cobb said he’s looking for a succession of red quarter candles that must end with a green candle, followed by a subsequent candle breaking above the green candle’s high.
Cobb said that Bitcoin has gone from red to green 15 times in its history. In 11 instances, the high of the first green candlestick was subsequently broken, and all 11 moves eventually made a new all-time high.
“So $83,000 is broken and the September three-month candle closes, then a break higher consolidates and I’d say the bull market has begun,” Cobb said.
