TrendForce predicts that global notebook shipments could decline by a high single-digit percentage by 2027, depending on how manufacturers respond to rising component costs. Here are the details.
‘Brands (to) face difficult trading’
In a report released this week, TrendForce predicts that global notebook shipments will decline in 2027, with declines ranging from low to high single digits, depending on how manufacturers respond to rising costs.
TrendForce said the impact will depend on the increased amount of costs that manufacturers pass on to consumers through higher retail prices, rather than absorbing them at the expense of their profits.
From the report:
TrendForce’s latest notebook industry research reveals that the main risk facing the market in 2027 is expected to shift from supply constraints to the impact of rising costs on demand. Global notebook shipments are expected to decline in the low single digits in 2027.
However, if DRAM and CPU prices remain high, brands may be forced to pass these costs on to consumers. These higher retail prices could further extend the replacement cycle, possibly causing full-year shipments to drop into the high single digits.
TrendForce says notebook shipments in 2026 are supported by factors such as improved CPU availability, early purchases by manufacturers, and demand for replacements brought in from later periods.
With some purchases initially expected in the second half of 2026 and more brought forward, the pace of replacements in the subsequent period is likely to soften. In addition, as low-cost inventory is gradually reduced, brands will face direct pressure from rising CPU, DRAM and SSD prices.
The report notes that 68% of invoices for “unnamed generic notebooks with a manufacturer’s suggested retail price of $900” are comprised of CPU, DRAM and SSD costs in the third quarter of 2026.
It added that next year, if ingredient costs continue to rise, brands may have to choose between raising retail prices and risking weaker demand, absorbing the increase in overall costs, or reducing specifics, potentially making their products less competitive.
TrendForce said DRAM supply “is likely to tighten” next year due to AI-related demand, “while PC DRAM faces the risk of limited supply growth.” On the flip side, it expects NAND Flash supply constraints to “ease in the second half of 2027 with new capacity coming online.”
By 2027, brands will not be able to maintain prices, specifications, and profits simultaneously. The extent to which they pass higher costs on to consumers will be a key factor in creating demand.
Finally, the report notes that if the tax pressure does not increase, manufacturers could move notebook production back to China to reduce costs. TrendForce predicts that China’s share of global notebook production will increase from 76% in 2025 to 79% in 2026, possibly exceeding 80% in 2027.
To read the full TrendForce report, Follow this link.
